Designing realistic scenarios for disaster management quantitative models

Disaster Management has received a lot of attention over the last twenty years, and can now be considered a full research area. But a gap exists between research work proposals and their applications on the field. This is particularly true regarding quantitative approaches. One of the main issues is that the scenarios used to design and validate the proposals are often not accurate and/or too simple compared to the complexity of real situations. Designing realistic scenarios is of prime importance to be able to propose relevant quantitative models which could be implemented by practitioners. This paper tackles this problem by proposing a structured methodology which aims at defining realistic disaster scenarios. The case of earthquakes management in Peru is used to illustrate the consistency of our proposal.